The lockout is finally over, and don't get me wrong, I am extremely excited to watch LeBron try to redeem himself, Dirk's attempt to defend his title, and Grant Hill and Kurt Thomas still play. But my favorite thing about the NBA every year is without a doubt seeing how the rookies do.
This year's draft class was heavily criticized due to the lack of star power in it, which could be partly credited to a potential lockout looming (sure-fire lottery picks Harrison Barnes, Perry Jones, and Jared Sullinger pulled out of the draft because of it), but nonetheless is still stock full of guys who can be effective players in the NBA for 10-12 years. Here are my thoughts on how I think they will fare this season.
Rookie of the Year: Kemba Walker, Charlotte Bobcats
This is not just based off of how well he did in college. The Bobcats needed scoring going into the draft, and they came away with some. Charlotte as a team only averaged 93.3 points per game last year, which was good for second to last in the league. Kemba will have loads of opportunities to score the basketball in Charlotte, and a season-long average of around 20 ppg is actually pretty reasonable considering the absence of scoring there.
He will not only bring scoring, however. He will also bring leadership, defense, and maturity into Charlotte, some things they have never really had in their 7 year existence. This is why he will win the award.
Runner-up: Kyrie Irving, Cleveland Cavaliers
Irving only played 11 games in college, but was still picked #1 by Cleveland.
In those 11 games, however, he played fairly well, posting averages of 17.5 points, 4.3 assists, 1.5 steals, and 1.6 three pointers in just 27.5 minutes per game. To put it into perspective, Derrick Rose averaged 14.9 points, 4.7 assists, and 1.2 steals in 29.2 minutes per game while playing for the University of Memphis in 2007-08, and was named the MVP of the 2010-11 NBA season. Irving has a much different skill set than Rose, but will still be a very good point guard in the league. His three point shooting ability coming in only helps him, as Derrick Rose and John Wall went in without it and are now some of the best points around.
Almost in: Derrick Williams, Minnesota Timberwolves
The reason he won't win the award is because of the logjam at Williams' positions he plays in Minnesota. Kevin Love, their best player, starts at power forward, and Michael Beasley, a player with a similar game to Williams', starts at small forward. They will likely eat up the majority of the minutes there, and also most of the shots, leaving little for Williams. But despite all these things he will still be effective and in the running for rookie of the year, which tells you what he could do if he had a better opportunity.
Also watch out for:
Alec Burks, Utah Jazz
He could end up being the best player from this draft class when it's all said and done. He scored over 20 a game for Colorado, and grabbed 6.5 rebounds a game, an impressive number for a 6-6 guard. His glaring so-called "weakness" is his shooting ability. He shot just 29% from downtown in college, and his scouting report suggests that his shot loses its fluidity when he shoots past 15 feet. But, it won't be tough to adjust his shot mechanics in the NBA, as shooting is the easiest thing to fix. He will be a special player some day, and even figures to make a significant impact in his initial season.
Kenneth Faried, Denver Nuggets
Key players Kenyon Martin, JR Smith, and Wilson Chandler all signed overseas during the lockout, which was nothing but good news for Denver's first round draft pick Kenneth Faried. He was a force to be reckoned with playing at Morehead State, as he posted impressive averages of 17.3 points and 14.5 rebounds per game his senior season. Rebounding usually translates over to the NBA, and everyone loves a guy who gives his all every single possession. Expect him to have a solid rookie season.
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